Scientists Warn Ocean Current Shift Could Alter Iceland’s Climate

2026-02-12 - 13:47

Climate researchers have raised concerns that disruption to a major Atlantic Ocean circulation system could significantly alter weather patterns in northern Europe, including Iceland, as reported by the Washington Post. The system, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), helps transport warm water northwards and is widely regarded as a key factor in moderating Iceland’s climate. What's the Story? Climate models indicate potential weakening or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under high-emissions scenarios Estimated 25% probability of collapse even if Paris Agreement targets met Risk of AMOC disruption included in Iceland’s national security assessments; integration into strategy planned by 2028 Ocean currents threat Scientists say changes to this circulation could have wide-reaching effects. Recent modelling studies examining high global emissions scenarios suggest that the AMOC could weaken substantially and, in some cases, eventually stop. A study published last August found that in nine high-emissions models considered, the circulation weakened and ultimately ceased. Even if global climate targets under the Paris Agreement are met, researchers estimate the probability of collapse at approximately 25 percent. Potential impacts for Iceland include significantly colder winters and expanded sea ice. The Icelandic Meteorlogical Office has indicated that in such a scenario, conditions could change dramatically. However, there is ongoing debate within the scientific community. Some researchers argue that stabilising factors may allow the system to remain resilient, even under substantial warming. Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf has warned that the risk may be underestimated, stating that AMOC could reach a tipping point within the next 10–20 years. Iceland has included the possibility of AMOC disruption in its national security risk assessments and plans to integrate the scenario into its risk management strategy by 2028.